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\n\t\tAu sortir de la guerre de Cor\u00e9e (1950-1953), le choix de l’alliance avec les \u00c9tats-Unis offre \u00e0 la Cor\u00e9e du Sud une assurance de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 l’\u00e9tablissement de plusieurs bases am\u00e9ricaines sur son territoire. Cela permet au pays de se concentrer sur son d\u00e9veloppement \u00e9conomique et de devenir la 11e puissance \u00e9conomique mondiale tout en b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiant d’une balance commerciale largement exc\u00e9dentaire avec le reste du monde (81 milliards de dollars en 2018). Cet exc\u00e9dent commercial \u00e9tant particuli\u00e8rement important avec les \u00c9tats-Unis, S\u00e9oul se voit imposer par Washington, le 24 septembre 2018, un nouvel accord de libre-\u00e9change tr\u00e8s contraignant sur son industrie automobile et sa production d’acier. Pourtant, en 2019, les \u00c9tats-Unis continuent d’enregistrer un d\u00e9ficit commercial avec la Cor\u00e9e du Sud de l’ordre de 19 milliards de dollars. Compte tenu des conditions \u00e9conomiques d\u00e9favorables pour son pays, Donald Trump est formel : S\u00e9oul, qui profite depuis trop longtemps de la protection am\u00e9ricaine, doit d\u00e9sormais utiliser sa prosp\u00e9rit\u00e9 \u00e9conomique pour davantage prendre en main sa d\u00e9fense.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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\n\t\tCette approche comptable de l’alliance, tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9e de l’\u00e9preuve de feu partag\u00e9e pendant la guerre de Cor\u00e9e, contrarie \u00e9norm\u00e9ment S\u00e9oul qui se d\u00e9fend parall\u00e8lement des accusations de passivit\u00e9 dans le domaine militaire. La Cor\u00e9e du Sud investit en effet 2,5 % de son PIB pour sa d\u00e9fense : c’est beaucoup plus que les autres alli\u00e9s des \u00c9tats-Unis (moins d’1.2 % pour l\u2019Allemagne ou moins de 1 % pour le Japon). S\u00e9oul prend \u00e9galement en charge un peu plus de 40 % des d\u00e9penses quotidiennes des troupes am\u00e9ricaines stationn\u00e9es dans la p\u00e9ninsule, et finance \u00e0 hauteur de presque 10 milliards de dollars le d\u00e9m\u00e9nagement de la base am\u00e9ricaine de Yongsan, au c\u0153ur de la capitale, vers celle de Camp Humphreys, dans le sud du pays. Entre 2008 et 2017 enfin, S\u00e9oul a achet\u00e9 pour 6,7 milliards de dollars de mat\u00e9riel militaire am\u00e9ricain, dont 40 avions de chasse F-35. Cela place la Cor\u00e9e du Sud \u00e0 la troisi\u00e8me place du classement des principaux importateurs d’armes am\u00e9ricaines au cours de cette p\u00e9riode. Cette importance prise par S\u00e9oul dans l’industrie de d\u00e9fense \u00e9tasunienne, secteur qui emploie plusieurs millions d’Am\u00e9ricains, milite \u00e9videmment en faveur de l’alliance.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n

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Un statu quo n\u00e9cessaire<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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\n\tLe 2 octobre 2019 pour les premiers (tir d’un missile balistique depuis une barge sous-marine) et le 1er janvier 2020 pour la seconde (discours de Kim Jong-Un).<\/div>Le 12 juin 2018, tout juste apr\u00e8s le sommet de Singapour, Donald Trump annonce vouloir le retrait des troupes am\u00e9ricaines stationn\u00e9es dans la p\u00e9ninsule, souhaitant donner corps aux promesses de d\u00e9nucl\u00e9arisation formul\u00e9es avec Kim Jong-Un. L’ann\u00e9e suivante pourtant, les \u00e9checs des sommets de Hano\u00ef (27-28 f\u00e9vrier) et de Stockholm (5 octobre) mettent un coup d’arr\u00eat \u00e0 l’enthousiasme des \u00c9tats-Unis. Washington ne peut se r\u00e9soudre \u00e0 une lev\u00e9e des sanctions internationales impos\u00e9es \u00e0 la Cor\u00e9e du Nord sans des engagements fermes de Pyongyang sur son programme nucl\u00e9aire. La reprise des essais militaires et l’annonce du d\u00e9veloppement d’une nouvelle arme strat\u00e9gique par la Cor\u00e9e du Nord poussent les \u00c9tats-Unis \u00e0 la prudence et \u00e0 poursuivre leur traditionnelle politique d’endiguement.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\t\tL’alliance avec la Cor\u00e9e du Sud est, \u00e0 ce titre, toujours consid\u00e9r\u00e9e comme essentielle par Washington ; mais pas \u00e0 n’importe quel prix. Les \u00c9tats-Unis entendent bien imposer l’id\u00e9e d’un plus juste partage financier de l’effort militaire avec S\u00e9oul, mentionnant les retomb\u00e9es \u00e9conomiques positives de la pr\u00e9sence de leurs soldats. Plusieurs sondages r\u00e9alis\u00e9s en 2019 en Cor\u00e9e du Sud montrent que plus de 60 % de la population est favorable \u00e0 la pr\u00e9sence militaire am\u00e9ricaine. Cependant, 45 % des Sud-Cor\u00e9ens ne souhaitent pas voir leur pays davantage d\u00e9penser pour l’alliance avec les \u00c9tats-Unis.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\t\t\u00c0 n’en pas douter, l’issue des n\u00e9gociations en cours avec Washington devra s’immiscer dans les prochaines \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives sud-cor\u00e9ennes du 15 avril 2020. Si Moon Jae-in veut accro\u00eetre les chances d’une r\u00e9\u00e9lection du parti d\u00e9mocrate (Minjudang) dont il est issu, et qui contr\u00f4le actuellement l’Assembl\u00e9e nationale, il doit trouver un accord financi\u00e8rement acceptable pour la population. D’o\u00f9, en partie, la lenteur des n\u00e9gociations, qui en sont d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e0 leur sixi\u00e8me round. <\/em>Dans l’intervalle, l’annonce le 21 janvier dernier de la participation de la Cor\u00e9e du Sud \u00e0 l’op\u00e9ration am\u00e9ricaine de s\u00e9curisation du d\u00e9troit d’Ormuz doit laisser entendre aux \u00c9tats-Unis que la contribution \u00e0 l’alliance n’est pas forc\u00e9ment que financi\u00e8re.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Le Japon, un observateur attentif<\/h2>\n<\/div>\n
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\n\t\tLes n\u00e9gociations entre S\u00e9oul et Washington sur le partage financier de l’alliance sont suivies de pr\u00e8s par les autres alli\u00e9s des \u00c9tats-Unis. Plus particuli\u00e8rement par le Japon, qui rassemble environ 45 000 soldats am\u00e9ricains. En juillet 2019, Tokyo a ainsi \u00e9t\u00e9 somm\u00e9 de payer 8 milliards de dollars par an pour la pr\u00e9sence sur son sol de militaires \u00e9tasuniens.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\t\tIl va sans dire qu’un \u00e9chec des n\u00e9gociations entre la Cor\u00e9e et les \u00c9tats-Unis, s’il implique a fortiori <\/em>un d\u00e9part des troupes am\u00e9ricaines de Cor\u00e9e du Sud, enverrait un signal inqui\u00e9tant aux autres alli\u00e9s de l’Am\u00e9rique. Cela confirmerait notamment l’impr\u00e9visibilit\u00e9 de la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re de Donald Trump ainsi que sa propension \u00e0 abandonner ses alli\u00e9s. L’exemple des Kurdes, d\u00e9laiss\u00e9s face au lancement de l’offensive turque contre la Syrie le 6 octobre 2019, en apporte l’illustration.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\t\tPar Olivier Martz<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Soutenez-nous !<\/h3>\n\t\t
Asialyst est con\u00e7u par une \u00e9quipe compos\u00e9e \u00e0 100 % de b\u00e9n\u00e9voles et gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un r\u00e9seau de contributeurs en Asie ou ailleurs, journalistes, experts, universitaires, consultants ou anciens diplomates... Notre seul but : partager la connaissance de l'Asie au plus large public.<\/p>\n\t\tFaire un don<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Tags de l'article<\/h5>\n\t\t
Asie du Nord-Est<\/a><\/li>
Cor\u00e9e du Nord<\/a><\/li>
Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/a><\/li>
d\u00e9fense<\/a><\/li>
Etats-Unis<\/a><\/li>
Japon<\/a><\/li>
Kim Jong-Un<\/a><\/li>
militaire<\/a><\/li>
strat\u00e9gie<\/a><\/li><\/ul>
\t<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t
\r\n\t\t\t\t Share on Facebook<\/a>Share on Twitter<\/a>Share on Linkedin<\/a>Share on Pinterest<\/a>\t \t <\/div>\r\n\t \n
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A propos de l'auteur<\/h5>\n\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tOlivier Martz\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\tAnalyste dipl\u00f4m\u00e9 en relations internationales, Olivier Martz est s'int\u00e9resse tout particuli\u00e8rement aux probl\u00e9matiques g\u00e9opolitiques et de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 en Asie du Nord-Est.\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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On vous recommande<\/h5>\t\t\t
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$\"Les$ <\/span>Economie<\/span>
La Cor\u00e9e du Sud face aux \"trumpitudes\" de Shinzo Abe<\/h4><\/span><\/a><\/li>
$\"Sc\u00e8ne$ <\/span>Culture<\/span>
Cor\u00e9e du Sud : \"1987\" de Jang Joon-hwan, le devoir de m\u00e9moire contre le recul de la d\u00e9mocratie<\/h4><\/span><\/a><\/li>\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Donald Trump presse la Cor\u00e9e du Sud d’augmenter sa contribution financi\u00e8re \u00e0 leur alliance bilat\u00e9rale, mais les n\u00e9gociations peinent \u00e0 aboutir. S\u00e9oul joue gros \u00e0 l’approche des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives du 15 avril.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1636,"featured_media":46773,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[23,81,152,40,177,39,83,166,1859],"class_list":["post-46708","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politique","tag-asie-du-nord-est","tag-coree-du-nord","tag-coree-du-sud","tag-defense","tag-etats-unis","tag-japon","tag-kim-jong-un","tag-militaire","tag-strategie"],"yoast_head":"\nComment la Cor\u00e9e du Sud n\u00e9gocie sa d\u00e9fense avec les \u00c9tats-Unis - Asialyst<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Donald Trump presse la Cor\u00e9e du Sud d'augmenter sa contribution financi\u00e8re \u00e0 leur alliance bilat\u00e9rale, mais les n\u00e9gociations peinent \u00e0 aboutir. 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A propos de l'auteur<\/h5>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t