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\n\t\tCroyez-vous que la r\u00e9unification des deux Cor\u00e9es soit encore possible ?
\n\t
\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tLa r\u00e9unification est devenue un r\u00eave impossible. La Cor\u00e9e du Sud qui n\u2019a pas l\u2019arme atomique, ne peut pas d\u00e9sarmer un Etat nucl\u00e9aire comme la Cor\u00e9e du Nord. L\u2019antagonisme entre les deux Cor\u00e9es s\u2019est accru ces derni\u00e8res ann\u00e9es. Beaucoup de Sud-Cor\u00e9ens ont peur aujourd\u2019hui de la Cor\u00e9e du Nord. S\u2019il y a un changement de r\u00e9gime \u00e0 Pyongyang, les choses peuvent \u00e9voluer. Mais avec Kim Jong-un, aucun compromis n\u2019est possible.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\t\u00ab\u00a0On ne fait pas voler les avions avec du charbon, on ne fait pas rouler les chars au charbon… Le p\u00e9trole chinois est vital pour l\u2019arm\u00e9e nord-cor\u00e9enne.\u00a0\u00bb\t<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
\n\t
\n\t\tLes dirigeants nord-cor\u00e9ens mettent en avant l\u2019arme atomique comme moyen de p\u00e9renniser le r\u00e9gime. Peut-on leur faire changer d\u2019avis ?
\n\t
\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tCela ne peut se faire que si la Chine coop\u00e8re plus \u00e9troitement avec la communaut\u00e9 internationale. La Cor\u00e9e du Nord est d\u00e9pendante de charbon pour son \u00e9conomie, mais l\u2019arm\u00e9e a absolument besoin de p\u00e9trole. On ne fait pas voler les avions avec du charbon, on ne fait pas rouler les chars au charbon. Et si on laisse sa voiture au garage pendant plusieurs mois, elle risque de moins bien fonctionner \u00e0 la reprise. Le p\u00e9trole chinois est vital pour l\u2019arm\u00e9e nord-cor\u00e9enne. Si P\u00e9kin d\u00e9cide d\u2019arr\u00eater ses livraisons de p\u00e9trole, l\u2019arm\u00e9e populaire de Cor\u00e9e sera moins fid\u00e8le \u00e0 Kim Jong-un. Or seul le m\u00e9contentement des cadres de l\u2019arm\u00e9e en raison d\u2019une situation d\u2019isolement du pays, peut conduire \u00e0 un changement de r\u00e9gime, cela sachant que l\u2019\u00e9tat de sant\u00e9 de Kim Jong-un n\u2019est pas stable.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tLa solution aux tensions dans la p\u00e9ninsule ne peut venir que de la Chine, d\u00eetes-vous, cela veut dire que P\u00e9kin ne fait rien pour am\u00e9liorer la situation ?
\n\t
\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tLa Chine n\u2019est pas responsable de l\u2019attitude de Pyongyang et donc de la crise, mais c\u2019est la seule qui dispose des bonnes cartes et de l\u2019atout capable de r\u00e9gler le dossier nord-cor\u00e9en.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tEn m\u00eame temps, les dirigeants chinois craignent une r\u00e9unification d\u2019une grande Cor\u00e9e \u00e0 leur porte ?<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tIl y a plusieurs courants au sein du Parti communiste chinois. C\u2019est surtout l\u2019arm\u00e9e en Chine qui s\u2019oppose \u00e0 une r\u00e9unification de la p\u00e9ninsule cor\u00e9enne, sur le mod\u00e8le de la Cor\u00e9e du Sud. Il faut donc r\u00e9soudre le probl\u00e8me du THAAD, de mani\u00e8re \u00e0 ce que P\u00e9kin devienne plus coop\u00e9ratif.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tLa guerre est-elle imaginable entre les deux Cor\u00e9es aujourd\u2019hui ?<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tPas tout de suite\u2026 Mais si la Cor\u00e9e du Nord dispose de missiles intercontinentaux, alors la situation va totalement changer et on pourrait tout a fait se retrouver confronter \u00e0 un conflit limit\u00e9. Cela peut arriver dans un ou deux ans, donc on a tr\u00e8s peu de temps. P\u00e9kin a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 r\u00e9cemment qu\u2019il pouvait changer de politique \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9gard de son alli\u00e9. La Chine et la Russie ont accept\u00e9 de r\u00e9duire leurs exportations de p\u00e9trole vers la Cor\u00e9e du Nord \u00e0 hauteur de 30%. Si Pyongyang continue ses provocations, P\u00e9kin pourrait encore diminuer ses exportations, voire couper totalement son approvisionnement en p\u00e9trole.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\t\u00ab\u00a0L\u2019urgence, c\u2019est de lancer un dialogue strat\u00e9gique entre la Chine et le reste du monde. C\u2019est la seule mani\u00e8re de pousser la Cor\u00e9e du Nord a geler son programme nucl\u00e9aire.\u00a0\u00bb\t<\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n
\n\t
\n\t\tCe ne sera pas trop tard ? Un ou deux ans, c\u2019est tr\u00e8s court\u2026
\n\t
\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
\n\t
\n\t\tOn a effectivement peu de temps, il faut donc absolument que la Chine change sa politique vis-\u00e0-vis de la Cor\u00e9e du Nord. Il faut aussi une plus grande coop\u00e9ration internationale pour pousser la Chine \u00e0 changer d\u2019attitude. Pour cela, nous devons r\u00e9p\u00e9ter aux dirigeants chinois que nous ne voulons pas l\u2019effondrement du r\u00e9gime nord-cor\u00e9en. L\u2019urgence, c\u2019est de lancer un dialogue strat\u00e9gique entre la Chine et le reste du monde. C\u2019est la seule mani\u00e8re de pousser la Cor\u00e9e du Nord \u00e0 geler son programme nucl\u00e9aire.\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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\n\t\tPropos recueillis par St\u00e9phane Lagarde, avec Joris Zylberman et Antoine Richard<\/strong>\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n
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Soutenez-nous !<\/h3>\n\t\t
Asialyst est con\u00e7u par une \u00e9quipe compos\u00e9e \u00e0 100 % de b\u00e9n\u00e9voles et gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 un r\u00e9seau de contributeurs en Asie ou ailleurs, journalistes, experts, universitaires, consultants ou anciens diplomates... Notre seul but : partager la connaissance de l'Asie au plus large public.<\/p>\n\t\tFaire un don<\/a>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Tags de l'article<\/h5>\n\t\t
Abonn\u00e9s<\/a><\/li>
Asie du Nord-Est<\/a><\/li>
Chine<\/a><\/li>
Cor\u00e9e du Nord<\/a><\/li>
Cor\u00e9e du Sud<\/a><\/li>
dissuasion<\/a><\/li>
Donald Trump<\/a><\/li>
Etats-Unis<\/a><\/li>
Japon<\/a><\/li>
nucl\u00e9aire<\/a><\/li>
Pyongyang<\/a><\/li>
Seoul<\/a><\/li>
temps forts<\/a><\/li><\/ul>
\t<\/ul><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\t\t
\r\n\t\t\t\t Share on Facebook<\/a>Share on Twitter<\/a>Share on Linkedin<\/a>Share on Pinterest<\/a>\t \t <\/div>\r\n\t \n
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A propos de l'auteur<\/h5>\n\t\t\t\t\t
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t \n\t\t\t\t\t\t\tSt\u00e9phane Lagarde\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t\t\tSt\u00e9phane Lagarde est l'envoy\u00e9 sp\u00e9cial permanent de Radio France Internationale \u00e0 P\u00e9kin. Co-fondateur d'Asialyst, ancien correspondant en Cor\u00e9e du Sud, il est tomb\u00e9 dans la potion nord-est asiatique il y a une vingtaine d\u2019ann\u00e9es.\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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On vous recommande<\/h5>\t\t\t
\n\t\t\t\t
$\"Le$ <\/span>Politique<\/span>
Cor\u00e9e du Nord : le sourire de Kim Jong-un<\/h4><\/span><\/a><\/li>
$\"Une$ <\/span>Politique<\/span>
Juliette Morillot : \"Traitons la Cor\u00e9e du Nord comme un \u00c9tat normal !\"<\/h4><\/span><\/a><\/li>\t\t\t<\/ul>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Seuls un embargo chinois sur le p\u00e9trole et une Cor\u00e9e du Sud nucl\u00e9aris\u00e9e peuvent faire bouger Pyongyang, selon Cheong Seong-chang, conseiller de Moon Jae-in.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":33899,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":true,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[613,23,22,81,152,1364,890,177,39,114,85,605,193],"class_list":["post-33873","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-politique","tag-abonnes","tag-asie-du-nord-est","tag-chine","tag-coree-du-nord","tag-coree-du-sud","tag-dissuasion","tag-donald-trump","tag-etats-unis","tag-japon","tag-nucleaire","tag-pyongyang","tag-seoul","tag-temps-forts"],"yoast_head":"\nCheong Seong-chang : "Aucun compromis n\u2019est possible avec la Cor\u00e9e du Nord aujourd'hui" - Asialyst<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Seuls un embargo chinois sur le p\u00e9trole et 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A propos de l'auteur<\/h5>\n\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t